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Lighthizer tipped as Trump Treasury Secretary
Robert Lighthizer, prominent trade lawyer and the former U.S. Trade Representative under President Donald Trump, has emerged as a potential candidate for the next Treasury Secretary. His appointment could signal a continuation of some of the economic policies and trade strategies that characterized the Trump administration. Lighthizer’s tenure as U.S. Trade Representative was marked by aggressive trade negotiations, a focus... [ more ]
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Could Weaken the U.S. Dollar
The proposed tariffs by former President Donald Trump have sparked significant debate regarding their potential impact on the U.S. economy and the strength of the U.S. dollar (USD). While tariffs are often implemented with the intention of protecting domestic industries and reducing trade deficits, their broader economic consequences can be complex and multifaceted. In the case of Trump’s tariffs, there... [ more ]
Financial Repression of Last Resort
Last week I published an email to clients which made the central point that inflation has a reflexive political component to it which creates incentives for politicians push back against fiscal expansions. I added that we were likely to see an increase in ‘deficit hawk politics’ in the US following the midterm elections. This morning I want to expand a... [ more ]
The ‘Shift to Fiscal’
<Extract from our weekly email to Clients> The ‘shift to fiscal’ – we’ve all heard the argument, in fact, many of you have made it to me over the last year or so – and it tends to go a little something like this: “the world has changed post-covid, politicians have learnt that deficits don’t matter, from now on... [ more ]
A snapshot of political risk in Central Asia
An earlier Pozières Consulting article highlighted that the Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) country-specific and regional risks are being overlooked. These included disputes over borders, land and water. The Fergana Valley in Central Asia provides a snapshot of these specific political risks surrounding the BRI. Intersected by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the Fergana Valley is a historic crossroads of trade... [ more ]
China’s “Unreliable Companies” list – Blacklist or Be Blacklisted
Tensions between China and the United States continue to grow as China recently threatened to blacklist foreign companies as a retaliatory measure in response the Huawei export ban. Resulting in the loss of all its U.S. partners, the ban is proving to be detrimental to the tech giant’s business. Huawei’s newly earned title of “undermining American interests” also had global... [ more ]
A New Dawn for South Africa’s international strategy – Political Risk
Given the forthcoming national and provincial elections, this year will inevitably be dominated by domestic politics. But 2019 should be a year in which South Africa capitalises on new international opportunities and carefully repositions itself as a credible and legitimate voice in global affairs. Earlier this month, South Africa rejoined the United Nations Security Council for a two-year term as... [ more ]
China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ already fraying in Sri Lanka – Political Risk
It’s been a difficult week for China as leaders from the Asia Pacific region gathered in Port Moresby for the APEC summit. A war of words between Vice-President Mike Pence and President Xi Jinping dominated the summit as Pence took aim at China for what he called “debt diplomacy. Pence warned APEC leaders not to swap sovereignty for investment and... [ more ]
China in two minds over Trade War
“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight” – Sun Tzu “No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.” – Helmuth von Moltke It has become increasingly clear that the Chinese leadership has been caught off guard by the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration. Beijing’s recent refusal to sit down for continued... [ more ]
One Belt One Road – The Looming Political Risk
China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative will be the greatest infrastructure investment project of our time – or something along those lines. This has become the standard mantra in investing and media circles and can be heard almost as often as the deflected answer to any Bitcoin related question – “Blockchain a revolutionary technology”. We often hear that OBOR... [ more ]