Unrest in Myanmar: ISIS or Rhetoric?

Recent unrest in Myanmar’s Rakhine State which has seen more than 44 deaths since a police outpost was attacked on the October 9, has been linked to an apparent rise in Islamic inspired militancy according to the Myanmar government. Government officials went on to express fears that a new insurgency led by members of the Rohingya Muslim minority was gaining strength.... [ more ]


Brazil’s ongoing political crisis

The current situation in Brazil is something totally peculiar and unique in the history of the country. The country is currently facing a severe economic crisis with a GDP retraction of 3.6% in 2016, the worst recession in the country´s history. However, the real peculiarity is with the unprecedented political crisis that Brazil finds itself in. Such a situation generates... [ more ]


Bolivia: Resource Nationalism on the Ground

In 2006, Bolivia elected its first ever indigenous president, Evo Morales, who was quick to denounce external interference in national affairs. This included foreign economic interests in the country. Strategic natural resources – natural gas, oil and water – were brought under state ownership and declared the dominion of the people of Bolivia in a new constitution in 2009. Yet... [ more ]


Egypt’s Economic Reforms: A Political Risk Assessment

In August 2016, Egypt has agreed a 3-year $12bn loan with the International Monetary Fund to restore its ravaged economy. The loan will be contingent on significant reforms and is expected to be followed by money from the World Bank and African Development Bank. The technocrat government led by the president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has already been taking structural measures... [ more ]


Myanmar’s Path to Federalism

As the Panglong Conference gets underway this week in Myanmar, an initiative spearheaded by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi to bring peace and national reconciliation to Myanmar after decades of ethnic separatist civil wars, many analysts are considering what potential scenarios might arise from the conference and what it could mean for investment in the country. Despite the excluding... [ more ]


Troubles Ahead for Brexit and Northern Ireland

A cursory walk down the streets of central Belfast reveals a city in revival. Bustling pedestrian walkways provide access to numerous bars and cafes all thrumming with office workers enjoying a pint on their lunch break. Extravagant graffiti, once viewed as provocative and inflammatory, have largely been appropriated and adopted as part of the city’s charismatic charm. Not far from... [ more ]


China the Reluctant Superpower

The opening ceremony of the 2016 Olympics in Rio brought back memories of the 2008 opening ceremony in Beijing, a monumental occasion that, for many, marked the rise and rise of China. For much of the last decade the narrative was generally that of a zero sum game where the rise of China as a superpower would be at the... [ more ]


Turkish Expropriation

Yesterday saw the Turkish stock market fall more than 7% in response to last weeks failed Coup attempt. The cost of insuring against a default on Turkish government debt based on five-year credit default swaps rose 22bp as investors took stock of underlying political risks in the country. Piotr Matys at Rabobank told that “We expect Turkish assets to... [ more ]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of Georgia, Giorgi Margvelashvili

Georgia’s Balancing Act

On June 8, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili to NATO Headquarters for talks on Georgia’s ongoing reform efforts and prospect for further cooperation. Stoltenberg praised Georgia’s contribution to NATO’s Resolute Support Mission (RSM) in Afghanistan and welcomed Georgia’s impressive defence reform. The Secretary went further by stating that “Over the past two years, we have... [ more ]


Brazil: A coup?

“If anyone still had no certainty that there is a coup in… the fraud, strongly incriminating statements on the real objectives of impeachment, and who is behind it, removes any doubt”, charged President Rousseff when speaking about the recent scandal involving Planning Minister Romero Jucá and his secretly recorded plot to oust her. Jucá was keen to have President Rousseff... [ more ]